PAWLEYS ISLAND, S.C. - As the year draws to a close and 2019 is in view, the thoughts of many are drawn to…2020. Yes, it's almost time for many to think about running for President. But, what about the current holder of the office? When asked what they think is most likely, almost two in five Americans (38%) say President Trump is re-elected in November, 2020 while almost the same number (37%) say he loses re-election. One-quarter (25%), however, say it is most likely he leaves office before November of 2020. This is from a survey we conducted of 2,174 U.S. adults, 18 and older between December 10 and 12, 2018.
Not surprisingly, there is a partisan difference. Seven in ten Republicans (70%) say the President will be re-elected while one in five (21%) say he will lose re-election and one in ten (9%) say he will leave office early. Almost half of Democrats (47%) say he will lose re-election, over one-third (37%) say he will leave office early and over one in ten (15%) say the President will be re-elected. Among Independents, over two in five (42%) say he will lose re-election, three in ten (30%) say the President will be re-elected and almost three in ten (28%) say he will leave office early.